Projects

Projects in which SEURECO is involved

European and French Projects

Economy

PMQ - Scenarios for the French labour skills matching exercice - Prospective Jobs-Qualification
  Contract Type: Study
  Period: June 2018 to November 2021
  Customer: France Stratégie - French Prime Minister Services

Description

This study aims to build short- to medium-term scenarios (2030) for the French economy considering up-to-date detailed macro and sectoral economic statistics, short-term official prospects and medium-term foresights for the French economy. Several batches of scenarios are produced considering different assumptions on the future deployment and impact of the digitalisation of the French economy, on potential consumers behavioural changes and/or on French economic and environmental policies. The scenarios are run by the NEMESIS model that delivers quantitative output at macro and sector levels and particularly regarding employment by sector and qualification. Thereafter, these projections will used by the French administration to analyse French labour skills requirements and matching up to 2030.

SEURECO's contribution

Coordination of the modelling work and the reporting. Modelling exercises.

Consortium

SEURECO

Review of the VAT rules for financial and insurance services, in light of the existing regulatory and other indirect taxation rules
  Contract Type: Study
  Period: June 2019 to October 2020
  Customer: European Commission - DG TAXUD

Description

This study has two principal aims: to estimate the current impacts of the VAT exemptions on providers of financial and insurance services, business and individual consumers and tax revenues; and to conduct an impact assessment exercise of the effects of any future change to the current regime with respects to stakeholders and society as a whole. The main concern being the impact of a removal of the exemptions on financial and insurance services or on the financial services only.

SEURECO's contribution

SEURECO quantified the impact of the removal of exemption on VAT in the EU27 countries, the calculation of direct impacts on the activity and on employment in the financial and insurance sectors, and the evaluation of the overall impacts on economic activity: GDP, households’ final consumption, investment, imports, exports, etc.

Consortium

Economisti Associati (Leader), CASE, CEPS, Europe Economics, SEURECO, Hedeos, Oxford Research, Mazars N.V..

CAD - Connected Automated Driving - Support study for DG RTD on exploring the possible employment implications of connected driving in the car industry and in economy at large
  Contract Type: Study
  Period: June 2019 to October 2020
  Customer: European Commission - DG RTD - Unit H1

Description

This study aims to build medium to long-term scenarios (2050) on the connected automated driving potential development in the European Union and to assess them with modelling tools and particularly to quantify the consequences of CAD deployment on future employment in EU. These set of scenarios are defined with the support of large stakeholders’ consultation (interviews, workshops, etc…), by desk research on scientific literature and by the compilation of existing datasets. Thereafter, the scenarios are implemented in a scenario model, especially developed for the study, which will provide quantitative input to two macro-economic models (ASTRA and NEMESIS) that assess their socio-economic impacts (mainly employment, but also production, value-added, competitiveness, etc…) in comparison with a reference scenario. Finally, output of the models will be analysed and discussed to deliver policy recommendations to support the CAD deployment in EU.

SEURECO's contribution

Implement CAD deployment scenario in the NEMESIS model, run the NEMESIS model and contribute to policy recommendations.

Consortium

ECORYS (Leader), Ecorys, TRT, M-Five, VTT, SEURECO, ERTICO, IRU, UITP, CAM

R&D and innovation

SEEI Horizon Europe: Support for Assessments of Socio-Economic and Environmental Impacts of European Research and Innovation Programme
  Contract Type: Study
  Period: December 2016 to June 2018
  Customer: European Commission - DG R&I

Description

This study was carried out to provide support to the Impact Assessment of Horizon Europe, the European Framework Programme for Research and Innovation (2021-2027). The socio-economic and environmental impacts were assessed against the baseline of continuation of the Horizon 2020 Programme (2014-2020) for different policy options distinguishing: management options (centralised or decentralised), budgetary options (increase or decrease of budget) and general design options. This assessment was conducted using the NEMESIS macro-economic model, which allows to translate R&D investments and the related knowledge spillovers into endogenous growth mechanisms. Its mechanisms were recalibrated to consider the latest econometric results of the scientific literature and the specificity of European research policies.

SEURECO's contribution

Coordination of the study and the impact assessment of different scenario for Horizon Europe with the support of the NEMESIS model.

Consortium

SEURECO (Leader), UNU-MERIT, ISINNOVA, PPMI

Climate, Energy and Environment

PARIS-REINFORCE
  Contract Type: H2020 research project
  Period: June 2019 to November 2022
  Customer: European Commission - DG R&I

Description

The project aims to develop a novel, demand-driven, integrated assessment model-oriented framework for effectively supporting the design and analysis of climate policies in the European Union as well as in other major emitters and selected less emitting countries, in respect to the Paris Agreement and associated challenges. By engaging policymakers and scientists/modellers, PARIS REINFORCE will create the open-access and transparent data exchange platform I2AM PARIS, in order to support all kind of climate action mobilizing models. Acknowledging the need to employ diverse methodologies and tools in order to address the multiplicity of challenges, the unique approach of PARIS REINFORCE sees us changing the existing scientific paradigm, by introducing innovative integrative processes. In this direction, quantitative systems modelling tools are further coupled with well-established methodological frameworks, in order to improve the robustness of modelling outcomes against different types of uncertainties.

SEURECO's contribution

Coordinate the work-package on the modelling of EU climate mitigation. Use the NEMESIS model to run PARIS REINFORCE climate mitigation scenarios. Implement inter-linkage between EU models and also with global modelling tools.

Consortium

EPU-NTUA (Leader), Imperial College, CICERO, CMCC, Cambridge University, BC3, SEURECO, Fraunhofer ISI, EPFL, E4SMA, Bruegel, IEECP, Holistic, University Brasilia, China University of Petroleum, IEFRAS, IGES, TERI.

ADEME - Support to assess financial climate transition risks
  Contract Type: Study
  Period: October 2021 to September 2022
  Customer: ADEME

Description

SEURECO supports the modelling activities and the reporting of a set GHG mitigation scenarios in France and EU to assess their socio-economic impacts and particularly regarding adverse transition scenarios. Combining a set of models for France, IMACLIM (CIRED), NEMESIS (SEURECO), NiGEM (Banque de France) and THREE-ME (ADEME-OFCE), this study leans on the NGFS global modelling exercise to assess the macro- and sector-level economic impact on low carbon transition scenarios. Besides usual models’ properties, the study explores how the different modelling tools can better consider adverse GHG mitigation scenarios either due to external conditions or by sensitivity analysis regarding models important related properties.

This study is a sub-activity of more large research activity performed by ADEME in the framework of a European LIFE project.

SEURECO's contribution

Coordination of the modelling work and the reporting. Modelling exercises.

Consortium

SEURECO (in collaboration with ADEME, Banque de France and CIRED)

DGEC ZEN - Modelling of Energy-Climate Prospective Scenarios for the European Union for 2050
  Contract Type: Study
  Period: September 2018 to June 2019
  Customer: French Ministry for the Ecological and Solidary Transition - Directorate-General of Energy and Climate

Description

The study Modelling of Energy-Climate Prospective Scenarios for the European Union for 2050 is based on the development of five long-term scenarios: a reference scenario reproducing that of the European Commission (EU Reference Scenario 2016), and four Carbon-Neutrality Scenarios (CNS). For each of them, detailed modelling was undertaken on the energy, agriculture and land use sectors, as well as the macroeconomic consequences. A sequence of models has been used to quantify and assess these scenarios: the POLES model for the energy system, the MOSUT model for agriculture, forestry and land use and the NEMESIS model for macro and sector economic aspects.

SEURECO's contribution

Provide and analyse the socio-economic impact assessment of the long-term scenarios developed for the study.

Consortium

ENERDATA (Leader), SEURECO, SOLAGRO.

IODA - Assessment of the French carbon footprint and socio-economic impact of EU carbon border adjustments
  Contract Type: ADEME research project
  Period: November 2016 to May 2019
  Customer: ADEME (French Agency for ecological transition)

Description

The project has delivered an overview of MRIO (Multi regional input output) databases use potential to monitor the French final domestic demand carbon footprint. Different databases have been studied. Meanwhile, the contribution of the metal sector (mining, production and retreatment) to this French footprint has been studied. Lastly, a literature review on carbon leakages and carbon border adjustment mechanisms have been done. And the macro-economic effects (on GDP and employment) in the European Union and in France of the implementation of carbon border adjustment mechanisms were also presented.

SEURECO's contribution

Realise desk research on carbon leakages and carbon border adjustment literature and use the NEMESIS model to assess the socio-economic impact of EU carbon border adjustment mechanisms.

Consortium

BRGM (leader), SEURECO

SET-Nav - Navigating the Roadmap for Clean, Secure and Efficient Energy Innovation
  Contract Type: H2020 research project
  Period: April 2016 to March 2019
  Customer: European Commission - DG R&I

Description

The project intends to support strategic decision making in Europe’s energy sector, enhancing innovation towards a clean, secure and efficient energy system. The project has produced contributions along three dimensions: the development of a modelling portfolio for decision making in the energy sector, the analysis of the impact of multiple future European climate mitigation pathways and policies, and the development of stakeholder dialogue and dissemination.

SEURECO's contribution

Make, with the support of the NEMESIS model, the socio-economic impact assessment of the different EU climate mitigation pathways produced by the consortium.

Consortium

TU WIEN (Leader), Fraunhofer ISI, NTNU, ETH Zurich, SEURECO, SINTEF, DIW, REKK, Comillas, EPU-NTUA, CEPS, UEA, Axpo, GE, IIASA.

The Value of Climate Action - A shadow piece of carbon for evaluation of investments and public policies
  Contract Type: Study
  Period: March 2018 to October 2018
  Customer: France Stratégie (French Ministry Primer Minister services)

Description

The study provides a comprehensive overview of analyses enabling definition of a trajectory of values to be taken into account if we are to achieve the goal of net zero GHG emissions by 2050 in France. Among other analysis, a multi-model analysis has been achieved using two different kind of models: macroeconomic models and energy-system models. Finally, the study recommends, for 2030, to put forward a shadow price of €250 per ton of CO2e.. By 2050 it is expected to align with the estimated costs of the enabling technologies required for decarbonization – therefore a cautious range of €600 to €900/ton of CO2e.

SEURECO's contribution

Implement carbon-neutral scenarios in France in 2050 with the NEMESIS model.

Consortium

SEURECO