Projects
Projects in which SEURECO is involved
European and French Projects
Economy
Description
This study aims to build short- to medium-term scenarios (2030) for the French economy considering up-to-date detailed macro and sectoral economic statistics, short-term official prospects and medium-term foresights for the French economy. Several batches of scenarios are produced considering different assumptions on the future deployment and impact of the digitalisation of the French economy, on potential consumers behavioural changes and/or on French economic and environmental policies. The scenarios are run by the NEMESIS model that delivers quantitative output at macro and sector levels and particularly regarding employment by sector and qualification. Thereafter, these projections will used by the French administration to analyse French labour skills requirements and matching up to 2030.
SEURECO's contribution
Coordination of the modelling work and the reporting. Modelling exercises.
Consortium
SEURECO
Description
This study has two principal aims: to estimate the current impacts of the VAT exemptions on providers of financial and insurance services, business and individual consumers and tax revenues; and to conduct an impact assessment exercise of the effects of any future change to the current regime with respects to stakeholders and society as a whole. The main concern being the impact of a removal of the exemptions on financial and insurance services or on the financial services only.
SEURECO's contribution
SEURECO quantified the impact of the removal of exemption on VAT in the EU27 countries, the calculation of direct impacts on the activity and on employment in the financial and insurance sectors, and the evaluation of the overall impacts on economic activity: GDP, households’ final consumption, investment, imports, exports, etc.
Consortium
Economisti Associati (Leader), CASE, CEPS, Europe Economics, SEURECO, Hedeos, Oxford Research, Mazars N.V..
Description
This study aims to build medium to long-term scenarios (2050) on the connected automated driving potential development in the European Union and to assess them with modelling tools and particularly to quantify the consequences of CAD deployment on future employment in EU. These set of scenarios are defined with the support of large stakeholders’ consultation (interviews, workshops, etc…), by desk research on scientific literature and by the compilation of existing datasets. Thereafter, the scenarios are implemented in a scenario model, especially developed for the study, which will provide quantitative input to two macro-economic models (ASTRA and NEMESIS) that assess their socio-economic impacts (mainly employment, but also production, value-added, competitiveness, etc…) in comparison with a reference scenario. Finally, output of the models will be analysed and discussed to deliver policy recommendations to support the CAD deployment in EU.
SEURECO's contribution
Implement CAD deployment scenario in the NEMESIS model, run the NEMESIS model and contribute to policy recommendations.
Consortium
ECORYS (Leader), Ecorys, TRT, M-Five, VTT, SEURECO, ERTICO, IRU, UITP, CAM
R&D and innovation
Description
The Innovation Union had the objective of strengthening Europe’s potential for innovation, and has set out 13 general objectives and 34 specific policy commitments associated with these objectives. This project delivered a system of assessment for these commitments. The approach started with the evaluation of the state of achievement of the individual commitments, but putted crucial emphasis on their effects on the innovation system as a whole, as well as on the wider economic effects of innovation. The idea was to retrace the chain of effects of these commitments, from their implementation to their final impact in terms of competitiveness, growth and employment.
SEURECO's contribution
Improve the NEMESIS model by enhancing the representation of endogenous technical change. Coordination and realisation of the impact assessment for the Innovation commitments.
Consortium
UNU-MERIT (Leader), ISINNOVA, SEURECO, WIIW, TIK-UiO, ULB, ZEW, EIZ, WERI-SGH.
Description
This study was carried out to provide support to the Impact Assessment of Horizon Europe, the European Framework Programme for Research and Innovation (2021-2027). The socio-economic and environmental impacts were assessed against the baseline of continuation of the Horizon 2020 Programme (2014-2020) for different policy options distinguishing: management options (centralised or decentralised), budgetary options (increase or decrease of budget) and general design options. This assessment was conducted using the NEMESIS macro-economic model, which allows to translate R&D investments and the related knowledge spillovers into endogenous growth mechanisms. Its mechanisms were recalibrated to consider the latest econometric results of the scientific literature and the specificity of European research policies.
SEURECO's contribution
Coordination of the study and the impact assessment of different scenario for Horizon Europe with the support of the NEMESIS model.
Consortium
SEURECO (Leader), UNU-MERIT, ISINNOVA, PPMI
Climate, Energy and Environment
Description
SEURECO's contribution
Consortium
EPU-NTUA (Leader), Imperial College, CICERO, CMCC, Cambridge University, BC3, SEURECO, Fraunhofer ISI, EPFL, E4SMA, Bruegel, IEECP, Holistic, University Brasilia, China University of Petroleum, IEFRAS, IGES, TERI.
Description
SEURECO supports the modelling activities and the reporting of a set GHG mitigation scenarios in France and EU to assess their socio-economic impacts and particularly regarding adverse transition scenarios. Combining a set of models for France, IMACLIM (CIRED), NEMESIS (SEURECO), NiGEM (Banque de France) and THREE-ME (ADEME-OFCE), this study leans on the NGFS global modelling exercise to assess the macro- and sector-level economic impact on low carbon transition scenarios. Besides usual models’ properties, the study explores how the different modelling tools can better consider adverse GHG mitigation scenarios either due to external conditions or by sensitivity analysis regarding models important related properties.
This study is a sub-activity of more large research activity performed by ADEME in the framework of a European LIFE project.
SEURECO's contribution
Coordination of the modelling work and the reporting. Modelling exercises.
Consortium
SEURECO (in collaboration with ADEME, Banque de France and CIRED)
Description
The study Modelling of Energy-Climate Prospective Scenarios for the European Union for 2050 is based on the development of five long-term scenarios: a reference scenario reproducing that of the European Commission (EU Reference Scenario 2016), and four Carbon-Neutrality Scenarios (CNS). For each of them, detailed modelling was undertaken on the energy, agriculture and land use sectors, as well as the macroeconomic consequences. A sequence of models has been used to quantify and assess these scenarios: the POLES model for the energy system, the MOSUT model for agriculture, forestry and land use and the NEMESIS model for macro and sector economic aspects.
SEURECO's contribution
Provide and analyse the socio-economic impact assessment of the long-term scenarios developed for the study.
Consortium
ENERDATA (Leader), SEURECO, SOLAGRO.
Description
The project has delivered an overview of MRIO (Multi regional input output) databases use potential to monitor the French final domestic demand carbon footprint. Different databases have been studied. Meanwhile, the contribution of the metal sector (mining, production and retreatment) to this French footprint has been studied. Lastly, a literature review on carbon leakages and carbon border adjustment mechanisms have been done. And the macro-economic effects (on GDP and employment) in the European Union and in France of the implementation of carbon border adjustment mechanisms were also presented.
SEURECO's contribution
Realise desk research on carbon leakages and carbon border adjustment literature and use the NEMESIS model to assess the socio-economic impact of EU carbon border adjustment mechanisms.
Consortium
BRGM (leader), SEURECO
Description
The project intends to support strategic decision making in Europe’s energy sector, enhancing innovation towards a clean, secure and efficient energy system. The project has produced contributions along three dimensions: the development of a modelling portfolio for decision making in the energy sector, the analysis of the impact of multiple future European climate mitigation pathways and policies, and the development of stakeholder dialogue and dissemination.
SEURECO's contribution
Make, with the support of the NEMESIS model, the socio-economic impact assessment of the different EU climate mitigation pathways produced by the consortium.
Consortium
TU WIEN (Leader), Fraunhofer ISI, NTNU, ETH Zurich, SEURECO, SINTEF, DIW, REKK, Comillas, EPU-NTUA, CEPS, UEA, Axpo, GE, IIASA.
Description
The study provides a comprehensive overview of analyses enabling definition of a trajectory of values to be taken into account if we are to achieve the goal of net zero GHG emissions by 2050 in France. Among other analysis, a multi-model analysis has been achieved using two different kind of models: macroeconomic models and energy-system models. Finally, the study recommends, for 2030, to put forward a shadow price of €250 per ton of CO2e.. By 2050 it is expected to align with the estimated costs of the enabling technologies required for decarbonization – therefore a cautious range of €600 to €900/ton of CO2e.
SEURECO's contribution
Implement carbon-neutral scenarios in France in 2050 with the NEMESIS model.
Consortium
SEURECO