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Publications

2022

The report “Les Métiers en 2030” is a work of France Stratégie and DARES for which SEURECO has carried out macro-sectoral forward-looking scenarios up to 2030. The report provides a quantified overview of the outlook for occupations by 2030, incorporating both the major trends observed in the past and the expected demographic, economic, technological and environmental developments.

2022

This chapter presents the NEMESIS macro-econometric model. This model has been used for several ex-ante and ex-post evaluations of the macroeconomic impact of EU R&I policies. After a general overview of the model, a thorough description of the representation of innovation in the model is provided. As an example of its workings, an application to the ex-ante evaluation of the Horizon Europe programme is also provided.

2021

With a suite of eleven different models, we carry out a model inter-comparison for the EU, the scenario logic and research questions of which have been formulated based on stakeholders’ concerns. We find that Europe is currently on track to overperforming its pre-2020 40% target yet far from its newest ambition of 55% emissions cuts by 2030, as well as looking at a 1.0-2.35 GtCO2 emissions range in 2050. Aside from the importance of transport electrification, deployment levels of carbon capture and storage are found intertwined with deeper emissions cuts and with hydrogen diffusion, with most hydrogen produced post-2040 being blue. Finally, the multi-model exercise has highlighted benefits from deeper decarbonisation in terms of energy security and jobs, and moderate to high renewables-dominated investment needs.

2021

This study explores the possible employment implications of connected and automated driving (CAD). It provides an analysis of the short, medium- and long-term impacts of CAD on jobs, employment, skills and knowledge. The main report presents four different scenarios outlining future CAD deployment and fleet compositions up to 2050. The main part of the report provides an analysis of the employment and social impacts along these four scenarios, highlighting expected quantitative as well as qualitative impacts. Finally, 22 policy options were developed and are presented in the final part of this report. These policy options have been operationalised by adding a timeline and by describing the role of various actors with the goal of setting the groundwork for a social roadmap for CAD deployment. The supporting annexes provide additional information with more detailed findings, as well as information on the methodology used.

2020

This report presents a very detailed analytical review of the extensive economic literature on the links between business research investment and economic growth and then details how economic growth is represented in the NEMESIS model. We then present the scenarios and the results of their simulation with the NEMESIS model allowing the quantification of the socio-economic impacts of the French CIR since 2008.

2020

All economies rely today on metal use either in the construction or energy sectors or in more advanced technology sectors. Nevertheless, not all countries have mining industries, which implies that these countries need to import primary metal concentrates and semi-finished goods containing metals to fulfil their final consumption. By importing these goods, they also import their associated environmental externalities. Considering the French metropolitan territory where mining industries are on hold since the 1990s, this study assesses the impacts on climate change of metals-related activities (i.e. mining, production and recycling) induced by the French final demand, as well as their share in the total French carbon footprint.

2020

This report delivers a comprehensive summary of the potential use of MRIO (Multi regional input output) databases. From this analysis, it is shown that the carbon footprint of France’s domestic final demand seems to have stabilised since the beginning of the 2010s, whereas the share of emissions contributing to the French carbon footprint that took place outside France tended to increase between 1995 and 2009. In parallel, results specific to the weight of the metals sector (extraction – production – reprocessing) in France’s carbon footprint are presented. Finally, the report provides a summary of the literature on the concepts of carbon leakage and border carbon adjustment mechanisms (BCA). An analysis of the macro-economic effects (on GDP and employment) in the European Union and France of different scenarios for implementing MACFs is also proposed.

2019

This paper provides an ex-ante assessment of the expected economic impact of the post-2020 EU Research and Innovation Framework Programme, Horizon Europe. A key novelty in the approach is the use of three different macroeconomic models for the assessment of the continuation of the current Programme, Horizon 2020: NEMESIS, QUEST and RHOMOLO. In addition, NEMESIS is used to assess different batches of policy options related to the budget, management and design of Horizon Europe. The paper also highlights key aspects and assumptions that policy-makers and researchers need to consider for this type of analysis such as budget allocation, performance, leverage and financing modes.

2019

The report provides a comprehensive overview of analyses enabling definition of a trajectory of values to be taken into account if we are to achieve the goal of net zero GHG emissions by 2050 in France. Among other analyses, a multi-model analysis has been achieved using two different kind of models: macroeconomic models and energy-system models. Finally, the report recommends, for 2030, to put forward a shadow price of €250 t/CO2e. By 2050 it is expected to align with the estimated costs of the enabling technologies required for decarbonisation —therefore a cautious range of €600 to €900/tCO2e.

P., Le Mouël, 2019, “Macroeconomic evaluation of EU R&I Policies: Ways and Means”. Economics and Finance. Université Côte d’Azur, 2019. English. NNT: 2019AZUR0008. tel-02497667. PhD Dissertation.

2019

This thesis describes the R&I mechanisms that the macroeconomic models QUEST III, NEMESIS and RHOMOLO incorporate, and how these models are used to evaluate R&I policies in the EU. NEMESIS is certainly the model that includes the richest mechanisms of technical progress, with the recent extension of its innovation mechanisms to the role played by investments in ICT, software and vocational training, which are particularly important in representing innovation in services. There is an art, and a way, to the macroeconomic evaluation of EU R&I policies, and it is to the presentation of this ‘trade-off’ that the different models form, based on the analysis of the main theoretical works that have developed, since the 1950s, that this thesis is dedicated.

2019

We conducted our own independent analysis of possible pathways for a deep decarbonisation for Europe until 2050, assessing a broad portfolio of options under distinct framework conditions. Following a large‐scale modelling effort, we offer a bandwidth of solutions and provide key insights based on the main modelling perspectives of SET‐Nav: demand side, energy supply and infrastructure, and the macroeconomic effects. In this policy brief, we focus on the specific energy transition questions addressed by the SET Nav pathways and on the implications and recommendations for research and innovation.

2018

This study was carried out to provide support to the Impact Assessment of Horizon Europe, the European Framework Programme for Research and Innovation (2021-2027). The socio-economic and environmental impacts were assessed against the baseline of continuation of the Horizon 2020 Programme (2014-2020) for different policy options distinguishing: management options (centralised or decentralised), budgetary options (increase or decrease of budget) and general design options (clustered into two groups aiming at “More Impact” and “More Openness”). This assessment was conducted using the NEMESIS macro-economic model, which allows to translate R&D investments and the related knowledge spillovers into endogenous growth mechanisms.

Le Mouël, P., Le Hir, B., Fougeyrollas, A., Zagamé, P. and and Boitier, B., 2016, “Toward a macro-modelling of European Innovation Union: The contribution of NEMESIS model”, paper presented at the 9th Conference on Model-based Evidence on Innovation and DEvelopment (MEIDE) the 16-17 June 2016 in Moscow, Russia.

2016

This paper presents the methodology adopted to represent the innovation in NEMESIS, a Large Scale Multi-Sectoral model for EU-28 countries, widely used for the assessment of EU R&I policies. While the previous version of the model was based on R&D only, in this new version we extend the range of innovation inputs to investments in ICT and in a set of OI assets (Softwares and Training). It allows notably to better represent innovation in service sectors and the diversity of the innovation strategies adopted by the different countries and production sectors.

2016

Renewable energy sources (RES) play a key role in the European Commission’s 2030 Climate and Energy Framework. We apply two types of models: a detailed techno-economic sector model of the deployment of RES and two macroeconomic models. Our findings suggest that up to 2030 our triple-dividend hypothesis holds even under a declining role of Europe as technology provider for the rest of the world. More ambiguous is the order of magnitude of the effects on GDP and employment, which differs noticeably depending on the economic theory applied in the different models. Nevertheless, both models predict slightly higher GDP and employment in 2030 when implementing ambitious RES targets.